We are down to the top three contestants on this cycle of American Idol, and I have some predictions to make. Let me preface my analysis by saying that I picked four Idol winners (Ruben, Fantasia, Carrie and Dave Cook) from their very first auditions. This year my top ten picks were spot on for the boys, and I only missed one girl, Haley, whom I had chosen as a Wild Card. I'm pretty good at this. However, I'm not really sure who will win this season. I think everyone has a shot, and this is why:
1. Lauren Alaina- Lauren was my favorite girl coming out of Hollywood week. I went into this season suspecting that we would have a country winner, and Lauren shines brightest when she is performing contemporary, tough girl country-- think Carrie Underwood or Miranda Lambert. She also has an extremely likable personality. Her only weakness is that she sometimes backs off on big notes or moments.
At only sixteen years old, Lauren is a phenomenal talent. She has a tone to her voice that will take her far, but she has to grow the (figurative) balls to back it up. Another concern for me is that, this week, It seemed like maybe she was trying to take a page out of Haley's book by trying out some rasping, forceful moments. Growing as a singer is one thing, but she needs to be very careful not to try to do what someone else is already doing, better, on the same stage.
2. Scotty McCreery- Scotty was my pick to win it all after the audition round. He is by far the best pure country singer the show has ever seen. Couple his deep, classic country voice with an earnest, farm boy personality, and you have a recipe for Middle American support. His teenage charm and good looks certainly don't hurt him with the young lady voters, either.
I think Scotty may have hurt himself this week in his interactions with Lady Gaga, though. It was obvious that conservative country boy Scotty had no respect for Lady Gaga, whatsoever. He kissed his cross and apologized to God after getting out of his session with her, and later said there's "nothing to do but laugh" at her. The show tried to play these things off as jokes, but Scotty seemed pretty disrespectful. I think this attitude, while somewhat hilarious to watch, may have hurt him for a few reasons.
a) Arrogance is not attractive to anyone. While a lot of Scotty's voters might feel the same way about Madame Gaga herself, watching a 17 yr old kid on Idol thinly veil his contempt for an international superstar is kind of icky. Humility is important.
b) Some of his voters might be turned off by his ultra-conservatism, in general. Now, I don't mean to imply anything about Scotty's actual actions or beliefs here, but it frankly isn't difficult to imagine him calling all gay people faggots or relentlessly teasing the weird kid in school.
c) Young girls LOVE Gaga.
In Scotty's defense, on Thurday's show, after watching Gaga perform her unreleased song "You and I", Scotty seemed somewhat humbled and perhaps a bit surprised to see Gaga's legitimate musical and theatrical talent. Aside from that issue, he will do well if he sticks with down-home, mass consumer country fodder.
3. Haley Reinhart- I didn't initially love Haley. I thought she tried to put too much into each performance, vacillating wildly between super high runs and low, bluesy growls. Since then, though, she has blown me away on several occasions. In fact, the only three times I have rewound to re-watch performances this season were all for her, once for "Benny and the Jets", once for "House of the Rising Sun," and once this week for "I who have Nothing". When she is on, she is a force to be reckoned with.
At first I was concerned that she wasn't connecting with the audience because she didn't show any vulnerability. However, I can remember one specific moment when she had a breakthrough in that department. During one show several weeks ago, they played a package in which Jimmy Iovine said Haley didn't know who she was as an artist yet. They then cut to Haley, who cursed under her breath and immediately teared up. "I think I know who I am," she pleaded, "You guys get it, right?" This was a small moment, but it made me like her a lot more and probably affected her positively in the competition. These days, her understandable exasperation at being the only contestant who ever receives negative notes, always about song choice, makes her a clear-cut sympathetic character.
On top of Haley's ridiculously talented voice and sometimes brilliant performance choices, she is the only contestant with a marketability outside of the country world. And with artists like Florence and the Machine and Adele doing so well right now, Haley's bluesy jazz feel might really have a chance in the popular music market. I would probably buy her album.
In conclusion, I called Scotty to win it early on, but I now think I will root for Haley. It will almost certainly be Scotty and whichever girl does better this week in the finale. Either way, let's just get this season over so we can begin another incredible season of So You Think You Can Dance.
More on that, later....
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